The Future Is Faster than You Think： What will the world look like in the next decade?
Hello, welcome to a book a day. Today, the book I will interpret for you is “The Future Is Faster than You Think.” This book answers a question that many people are concerned about: What will the world look like in the next decade with rapid technological advancements?
After finishing this book, I must say it left me amazed. Let me briefly list a few things for you to get a sense of it.
For example, the latest research report indicates that flying cars will start operating in 2022, and the market value of the entire autonomous flying car industry is estimated to reach 10 trillion yuan by 2040. It seems that flying cars from science fiction novels are truly becoming a reality. Additionally, Elon Musk’s SpaceX rocket has successfully completed its first test flight. If everything goes well, it will transport humans at a speed of 30,000 kilometers per hour in the future. What does this mean? With the cost of an economy-class ticket, people will be able to travel from Hong Kong to Singapore in just 22 minutes and from New York to Shanghai in 39 minutes. This is what real “on-demand” travel looks like.
Another example is a water purification system invented by American inventor Dean Kamen, which had already been put into operation in eight countries by 2017. This system can not only purify contaminated groundwater, wastewater, urine, and water from various sources but also consumes less electricity than a hairdryer. Then, in October 2018, a new technology that can extract 2,000 liters of water from the air every day was developed, with an estimated cost of less than 0.12 yuan per liter. Furthermore, due to a significant improvement in solar energy conversion rates, it may be possible in the future for a country to meet 80% of its electricity needs by fully utilizing just solar and wind energy.
If we shift our focus to the field of medical technology, there is also a lot of exciting news. By 2020, dozens of surgical robots were already being introduced to the market, and 3D-printed organ technology is expected to be officially launched in 2023. This means that in the future, medical expenses related to surgeries will be greatly reduced, and there will be significant breakthroughs in diagnosis, organ transplantation, minimally invasive surgery, and other areas.
You see, isn’t future technological development much faster than you imagined?
The two authors of this book, Steven Kotler and Peter Diamandis, are not only prominent figures in the American high-tech industry but also advocates of rational optimism. Kotler is a columnist for publications such as The New York Times and The Atlantic, and has been nominated for the Pulitzer Prize twice. Diamandis, on the other hand, is an extraordinary serial entrepreneur. He holds a master’s degree in aerospace engineering from MIT and a medical degree from Harvard University. Currently, he is a leading figure in the global commercial space exploration field and has founded over twenty companies in space, longevity, and venture capital. In 2014, he was also named one of Fortune magazine’s “50 Greatest Leaders” worldwide. He firmly believes that the best way to predict the future is to create it.
Furthermore, “The Future Is Faster than You Think” is the third collaboration between Kotler and Diamandis. Their previous works are “Abundance” and “Bold,” which we have already interpreted on our audio book program. These three books are collectively known as the “Exponential Mindset Trilogy.”
What does “exponential” mean? The authors believe that new technologies like quantum computing, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and blockchain do not follow linear development patterns but rather exhibit exponential growth. These technologies will lead us into an era of acceleration. Therefore,if we want to understand what the future of human society will look like, we must pay attention to the impacts these new technologies will bring.
Now, let’s move on to the two parts in which I will interpret this book for you.
In the first part, let’s discuss how the real world might change in the next decade.
The second part will help us understand the reasons behind these changes.
Now please fasten your “seat belt” because we are about to take you on a journey with a time machine, traveling to the future.
Today is January 28th, 2028, Friday. Mind you, this date is not something I made up on the spot; it’s a hypothetical scenario given in a book. You are at your home in the suburbs of Los Angeles, and at 11 o’clock, you have a meeting in New York. However, at 8 o’clock in the morning, you are still asleep at home. Since you’re wearing a smart ring, it knows that your rapid eye movement (REM) cycle has just ended, and now you’re entering the first stage of sleep, which is the best time to wake you up.
At this moment, the artificial intelligence assistant arrives. You named it Jarvis. After all, this is one of your favorite characters among the artificial intelligence companions in “Iron Man” with Tony Stark. Jarvis receives the data transmitted from your smart ring, adjusts the lighting in the room to simulate sunrise, maximizes your alertness with optimized light wavelengths, and plays your favorite song, “Freedom.”
To be honest, even though you are accustomed to various smart systems in your home, when you open your eyes, it still feels like a scene that only appears in science fiction movies suddenly becomes real in your life, which is somewhat incredible.
After finishing your morning routine in the bathroom, you suddenly feel a bit cold. The indoor temperature is normal, so could it be that you’re getting sick? Jarvis immediately conducts a full-body scan on you. With a system equipped with over a dozen sensors to capture gigabytes of data, a comprehensive diagnosis takes only 30 seconds. These sensors are distributed in various items like toothbrushes, toilets, pillows, and combined with your wearable devices, they form a health monitoring device that can monitor your physical condition in 360 degrees.
After the diagnosis, Jarvis determines that your white blood cell and neutrophil counts are elevated, indicating a possible bacterial infection. You try to recall how this could have happened, and Jarvis reviews all the people you’ve interacted with and activities you’ve attended in the past 48 hours. It turns out that you likely got infected during a dinner gathering with friends on Wednesday night.
At 9:00 in the morning, after having breakfast and taking antibiotics, you plan to head out. At this time, Jarvis has already made an appointment for a self-driving car. As you step outside, the car drives into the driveway. The entire process takes less than 10 seconds. Since Jarvis knows you had poor sleep quality last night, it arranges for you to take a short nap on the way. The self-driving car has been thoroughly disinfected and equipped with a reclining backseat and a brand-new blanket.
Soon, you arrive at the local station and board the super high-speed train bound for New York. Jarvis has already arranged the next self-driving car for you. The entire journey from your home in the suburbs of Los Angeles to the meeting room in the heart of New York City takes less than half an hour, allowing you an extra half-hour to prepare in advance and review industry reports.
After finishing work for the day, you feel a bit tired. However, you still want to surprise your wife tonight, so you decide to showcase your culinary skills and prepare dinner yourself, also to apologize for the unpleasant phone conversation at noon.
You have one more hour to prepare dinner, but you decide to relax on the couch for a moment. It’s apparent that you’re not very interested in the holographic news floating on the coffee table. Therefore, Jarvis suggests watching some TV, and you would never have guessed that it has prepared a short video for you. In fact, throughout the day, Jarvis has been meticulously recording your emotional changes, and the smart ring has been tracking your neurophysiological indicators. So Jarvis not only understands the details of your emotional fluctuations but also knows how these details affect your body and mind. Most importantly, it can take action based on this information.
The result of Jarvis’s proactive intervention is that when you enter the living room, your favorite comedy show segment is already projected on the wall. At the end of the video, Jarvis inserts several clips of you and your wife laughing together from your phone. Honestly, this “mashup therapy” has a great effect. It instantly triggers memories of all the little things your wife has done for you in daily life. Isn’t that how emotions work? We remember the good things about each other and forget the bad. As a result, you prepare a heartfelt dinner in the kitchen and resolve the differences with your wife through open communication.
The next day is the weekend, and your wife takes the children out. You plan to rest at home, but you have an event to attend next Monday and haven’t found the right outfit. You despise spending time in malls, but now you can put on smart glasses and let Jarvis teleport you to a virtual clothing store. It’s a personalized boutique tailor-made for you, where every garment is designed based on the latest data provided by Jarvis. What’s even more impressive is that every physical piece of clothing you own in the real world has a corresponding electronic version in the virtual world. Jarvis can directly help you put together outfits without the need for you to buy and try them on in person.
After selecting the clothing, you don’t have to worry about the subsequent steps like placing an order, making payment, or collecting the items. While the garment is being 3D printed, its electronic version is already added to your personal information library, making it convenient for you to access when you go shopping. Moreover, since there are no intermediaries involved, the price of the clothing is equivalent to a 50% discount compared to physical stores.
Now, back to reality, you probably feel that these scenes are not unfamiliar at all. After all, there are even more astonishing things in science fiction movies. However, I want to remind you that these are not just fictional imaginings but rather the author’s logical reasoning based on real-world foundations.
For example, let’s consider the earlier mentioned super high-speed train. If we only focus on the aspect of faster transportation, we may be missing the point. The greatest charm lies in the fact that, based on this speed and the resulting changes in technology, it could potentially disrupt the entire real estate, automotive, and energy industries.
Think about it, on one hand, we would spend less time on transportation, making the importance of where we live less significant. The so-called “social animals” we often refer to are those suffocated by skyrocketing housing prices. But now, with the emergence of super high-speed trains, this despised hierarchy related to property suddenly disappears. Furthermore, in the future, if the travel time between New York and Los Angeles is reduced to half an hour, it’s not much different from having a portal. With less money invested in the real estate market, these funds can be used for innovation and entrepreneurship. On the other hand, with the advent of super high-speed trains and autonomous driving, you may no longer need to buy a private car, let alone worry about refueling, charging, or finding parking spaces.
Another example is virtual reality and augmented reality technologies. Besides providing us with more entertainment options, the focus is on removing spatial constraints in social collaboration. These advancements will have significant impacts on industries such as tourism, education, and medicine.
Therefore, upon reflection, we’ll realize that individual technologies may seem insignificant on their own. However, once we magnify the overall picture from the perspective of the social imagination triggered by these technologies, the situation becomes entirely different.
Alright, in the first part, we imagined traveling to the future in the year 2028 and vividly experienced what the future world might be like. However, when it comes to this, many people may still have doubts about these scenarios because there are always two lingering strange feelings.
“The Future Is Faster than You Think” — our first strange feeling is that something seems off. Technological advancements have been talked about worldwide for a long time, with concepts like 5G, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. But in real life, we haven’t felt significant changes, and sometimes our phones still lose signal. If we haven’t even solved basic network issues, can these technologies really be realized? What is the basis for their claims? Peter Thiel, the Silicon Valley venture capital guru, expressed similar concerns in his book “Zero to One.” He said, “We wanted flying cars, instead, we got 140 characters.” The maximum character limit for a tweet on the social media platform Twitter is 140 characters. This statement has since been commonly used to express concerns about slow technological progress.
However, the two authors of this book believe that the reason our lives haven’t undergone major changes is that many technologies were still in the deceptive stage. The transformative impact on human life doesn’t happen immediately, so it takes quite a long time before they reach the level initially advertised. But once these technologies gather momentum and enter the disruptive stage, they will completely change existing products, services, and markets. This is something that will genuinely happen.
For example, thanks to sensor technology, in the next 10 years, we will live in a world where almost everything that can be measured will be continuously measured. In 1999, sociologist Neil Gross published a famous prediction in Businessweek, saying, “In the next century, the entire Earth will be covered by an electronic skin.” Now, this electronic skin is being stitched together, and millions of embedded electronic measurement devices will be deployed worldwide.
Do you remember the “smart ring” we mentioned in the first part? It’s called the “Oura Ring” and was invented by a Finnish health researcher named Petri Hollmén. It’s an upgraded version of a smartwatch. This ring contains three sensors that can track and calculate 10 different body signals. Additionally, since the arteries on the finger are closer to the skin surface than those on the wrist, the Oura Ring can better understand the condition of the heart and provide more accurate measurements. Currently, popular devices like the Apple Watch measure blood flow only twice per second, and fitness bands can measure up to 12 times, while the Oura Ring can measure 250 times per second. In independent laboratory studies, combining better imaging quality and higher sampling rates, the Oura Ring achieved an accuracy rate of 99% compared to medical-grade heart rate trackers. In 2020, NBA teams used this ring to track the physical health of their players.
Twenty years ago, such precise sensors would have cost millions of dollars and required a specially large room. However, thanks to the development of sensor technology, the price of the Oura Ring is now only around $300, less than 2,000 Chinese yuan.
The most significant result of sensor technology development is what we commonly refer to as the “Internet of Things” (IoT). In 2015, the total number of physical devices connected to the internet reached 15 billion. Most of these devices are equipped with multiple sensors. For example, on average, each smartphone has about 20 sensors. Researchers at Stanford University estimate that by 2030, if each device were equipped with dozens of sensors, there would be 500 billion connected devices. This explains why some people say that by 2020, our “trillion-sensor world” will officially debut.
We are moving from the macro world to the nano world, and this progress has led to the rise of trends like smart clothing, smart jewelry, and smart glasses.
Another example: can you imagine that the technology of 3D printing alone could pose a threat to the entire $12 trillion manufacturing industry?
For instance, General Electric’s advanced turboprop engines once consisted of 855 independent machined parts. With 3D printing technology, only 12 components are needed, resulting in a weight reduction of 45 kilograms and a 20% improvement in fuel efficiency.
Today, 3D printers can use most of the materials on the periodic table for printing, such as metals, rubber, plastics, glass, concrete, and even some leathers and chocolates.
As for the things that can be printed now, it’s quite incredible. From jet engines to circuit boards, and even prosthetics, 3D printers are manufacturing increasingly complex devices in shorter and shorter times. In 2019, a construction company in California, USA, used 3D printing technology to build a single-family home that complied with US building regulations, with product costs three times lower than the industry standard and one-tenth of the labor required, achieving an unprecedented level of innovation.
Because of the nature of 3D printing technology, which enables on-demand production, this technology has virtually eliminated the need for the parts market, supply chains, transportation networks, warehouses, and other processes in the manufacturing industry, except for the raw materials and storage space required for the printer itself. Furthermore, in the future, through 3D printing technology, we can create more personalized products designed by ourselves.
However, the authors propose that all these technological advancements, no matter how impressive they may seem, are actually old news. The real news is that the timing for the technological explosion has arrived. This is closely related to our second strange feeling.
Have you noticed that whenever a decade passes, you look back and find the present life somewhat unbelievable? The moment when everything undergoes earth-shattering changes, something that slips through our senses without being grasped, what exactly is it?
This thing is the essence of technological evolution, and it is the core logic of this book. All the imaginative ideas and speculations in this book are based on this logic.
This logic is called “technological convergence.” Technological convergence means that all the new products you see are essentially not supported by a single technology but rather a combination of many technologies.
For example, the reason why the speed of drug development is constantly accelerating is not only because biotechnology is rapidly advancing exponentially but also because other technologies like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and materials science are converging in this field. In other words, the process of technological evolution is not simply an addition problem but a series of multiplication problems.
Many independently developing technologies are not progressing in small iterative steps but are accelerating faster and faster. Eventually, they converge and suddenly explode. For example, electricity alone is of no use, but when combined with a lightbulb, it illuminates the world at night. Diesel alone is also of no use, but when combined with an engine, it produces automobiles.
It can be said that in the next decade, due to technological convergence, there will be fundamental breakthroughs and world-changing surprises. Let’s give two simple examples to help you understand what technological convergence is all about.
Remember when we mentioned earlier that when you return home, the intelligent assistant Jarvis plays edited videos to cheer you up? Jarvis can read your facial expressions, gestures, eye movements, tone of voice, head movements, and the frequency and duration of your speech to perform “affective computing.” This is a field known as “the science of teaching machines to understand and simulate human emotions.” It is at the intersection of cognitive psychology, computer science, and neurophysiology, combining the fusion of technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and sensors.
Rosalind Picard, the head of the Affective Computing Group at MIT, created a company specializing in developing emotion recognition platforms for use in the gaming and marketing industries. Once you experience confusion or discomfort during usage, this technology platform will inform the chatbot customer service, providing a method for gaming companies to adjust content in real-time, such as suddenly providing you with a bonus item. It also offers advertisers a new method for testing advertising effectiveness.
If you feel that your understanding of technological convergence is still incomplete, the second example of flying cars is a good demonstration.
In May 2018, at the second annual Uber Elevate Summit in Los Angeles, Jeff Holden, the Chief Product Officer of Uber, took the stage. He claimed that Uber expected to launch its full-scale aerial ridesharing service in Dallas and Los Angeles by 2023.
According to Uber’s requirements, the flying car must be electric and capable of vertical takeoff and landing, essentially an upgraded version of a helicopter. It does not require a runway and can fly directly to the destination. The envisioned minimum flight distance is 40 kilometers, yes, that close. Additionally, it must be able to carry one pilot and four passengers, fly at speeds exceeding 240 kilometers per hour, and sustain continuous flight for over three hours. Most importantly, it must be safe, low-noise, and affordable.
However, the biggest challenge to meet these requirements lies in the aircraft’s rotor. Traditional helicopters typically require a large rotor to generate upward lift, which leads to two immediate problems. The first is high noise, which happens to fall within the frequency range that causes discomfort for humans. The second problem is safety; if the single rotor fails, the helicopter will plummet due to gravity.
As a solution, scientists proposed replacing the single rotor on helicopters with a row of multi-rotor systems equipped with fans. This configuration reduces noise, and in the event of a failure in one of the rotors, it does not compromise the helicopter’s ability to land safely.
While the solution has been proposed, implementing the multi-rotor system poses numerous challenges. First, compared to a single rotor, conducting wind tunnel experiments for the multi-rotor system is far more complex and requires machine learning and computer simulation techniques to simulate flight.
Second, for the multi-rotor system to become airborne, it must be lightweight yet generate sufficient upward lift. On one hand, carbon fiber composites and sophisticated metal alloys need to be produced to ensure the lightweight structure of the aircraft. On the other hand, the traditional gasoline engine must be replaced with lithium-ion batteries to achieve an energy conversion efficiency of 95% and ensure longer flight range.
With these issues resolved, the question of whether it can fly is answered, but operational challenges arise during flight. Previously, adjusting a single engine was sufficient, and the pilot could handle the operation. However, now, with the need to adjust dozens of engines every microsecond, it becomes impossible for the pilot to accomplish. Therefore, big data and artificial intelligence technologies are necessary to calculate and process data in real-time and control multiple engines.
Finally, even when these problems are solved, the challenge of scaling up production remains. Only through mass production and cost reduction can flying cars be commercially viable. Therefore, 3D printing technology must be employed to print motors and rotors of any size for rapid assembly.
This is the dramatic transformation that occurs when multiple technologies are integrated. In other words, only when you gather ten specific cards at a particular moment can you unleash the power to summon the dragon. Moreover, the integration of technologies generates additional effects that, in turn, accelerate the process of integration, forming a positive feedback loop.
For example, the development of technology affects the speed of innovation. With an increasing number of labor-saving devices, scientists and entrepreneurs have more time to experiment, fail, and innovate. Most of us also have more time for education and learning. Additionally, technology development relies on substantial funding. Today, innovators can easily find funding through various new business models such as digital currencies, crowdfunding, and the data economy. In a positive feedback loop, we can observe innovation being generated at a record-breaking pace, generating wealth, and then reinvesting in further innovation. Furthermore, the integration of technology in the healthcare field extends human lifespan. Advances in anti-aging drugs and medical techniques provide more opportunities for people to contribute to society.
Alright, let’s wrap up our discussion on “The Future Is Faster than You Think.” I want to emphasize that this book is incredibly rich in content, and the authors explore numerous applications of new technologies.
For example, in response to the biodiversity crisis, a British bioengineering company has developed an AI-guided tree-planting drone. The process involves the drones mapping out an area to determine optimal tree-planting locations. Then, they release seed pods containing a gel-like growth medium onto the ground. This growth medium not only acts as a buffer but also serves as a nutrient distributor to accelerate plant growth. With this technology, a pilot can operate up to six drones simultaneously, resulting in the planting of around 100,000 trees per day. In the future, the company plans to assemble a tree-planting army consisting of 10,000 drones to deploy globally, with an estimated annual planting of one billion trees. It’s truly astounding.
This book is fascinating, and I highly recommend reading it to explore all these intriguing concepts and technologies.
Alright, that concludes our episode. Congratulations on completing another book! See you next time!
